The stock market investopedia and also martingale ...

First R1 of some stupid deficit fear mongering video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZLdqmA4nqw
First of all, I don't have any formal training in macroeconomics beside a course or two in college and what I've read online, but this video was actually shown in class by my prof(thankfully not an economics prof, but a finance prof nonetheless). There will be probably be some bad economics here of my own. I am sure you guys can do a far better R1 on this then I did, and I would appreciate if someone did, actually.
It is also interesting how this video is labelled "2014 Collapse" but has data from around the recession, when the government had an expansionary fiscal policy combined with a recession, leading to a larger budget deficit than usual.
At 0:37
Ever think about paying your mortgage with your credit card, that's exactly what uncle sam does(by issuing new bonds to pay interest on old bonds)
Wow, first of all, the interest rate on treasury bonds is far far lower than on any mortgage or credit cards. Secondly, a sovereign borrower is not like an individual. A sovereign government has a far, far larger credit "line", is perpetual, can increase their revenue substantially through tax raises, and their debt is actually demanded by hundreds of millions of individuals and institutions around the globe.
1:08
It's such a huge amount of money, uncle sam is running out of people to borrow money from
Standard & Poor's credit rating for the United States stands at AA+ with stable outlook. Moody's credit rating for the United States was last set at Aaa with stable outlook. Fitch's credit rating for the United States was last reported at AAA with stable outlook. . In general, a credit rating is used by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other investors to gauge the credit worthiness of the United States thus having a big impact on the country's borrowing costs. This page includes the government debt credit rating for the United States as reported by major credit rating agencies
http://www.statista.com/statistics/189302/trading-volume-of-us-treasury-securities-since-1990/
2:26
Remember the foreign governments that lent money to Uncle Sam, when they lent money to uncle sam, something interesting happened. It made the US look richer, and their countries look poorer
Does China investing the trillions of US forex they have on US bonds really make the US dollar appreciate?I understand capital inflows can increase demand for a currency, but did it really happen to extent that it provided a significant incentive for US companies to outsource operations, as he states later on?
When a country looks poor due to America, one dollar of our money, buys a lot of their money, so they can pay their workers only a few pennies a day. With such low labor costs, they can sell their products in America for lower prices than any American manufacturer can.
Obviously the difference in currency prices can affect the trade balance, but the inherent reason why Chinese goods and manufacturing is cheaper is because the the cost of labor and operations there is just a fraction of what it is in the US, in real terms.
2:50
The easiest way for American companies to compete, is to move their factories overseas, and pay their workers a few pennies a day too. This contributes to a recession
Ah yes, an increase in trade between China and the US and the wage depreciation among workers of America's massive industrial sector has been demonstrated to cause recessions
3:40
He[Uncle Sam] can't have the federal reserve make more money without making the inflation worse"
Obviously expansionary monetary policy tends to increase the rate of money supply growth in the economy and thus inflation, but the level of inflation wasn't above the threshold where it could be a problem. The recession actually had deflationary pressures rather inflationary,.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. Federal Reserve has kept interest rates near zero and pursued a bond-buying program – now discontinued – known as quantitative easing. Some critics of the program alleged it would cause a spike in inflation in the U.S. dollar, but inflation peaked in 2007 and declined steadily over the next eight years. There are many, complex reasons why QE didn't lead to inflation or hyperinflation, though the simplest explanation is that the recession was a strong deflationary environment, and quantitative easing ameliorated its effect
3:57
Whether its in two months or two years, the day will come when uncle sam can no longer pay its bills
Its been more than two years since this video was posted on youtube(most likely just a retitled version of an older video), the US government still has by far the best credit rating in the world.
submitted by FlairCannon to badeconomics [link] [comments]

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